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% ordering operators \newcommand{\oleq}{\preceq} \newcommand{\ogeq}{\succeq} % programming and logic operators \newcommand{\dfn}{:=} \newcommand{\assign}{:=} \newcommand{\co}{\ co\ } \newcommand{\en}{\ en\ } % logic operators \newcommand{\xor}{\oplus} \newcommand{\Land}{\bigwedge} \newcommand{\Lor}{\bigvee} \newcommand{\finish}{\Box} \newcommand{\contra}{\Rightarrow \Leftarrow} \newcommand{\iseq}{\stackrel{_?{=}}} % Set theory \newcommand{\symdiff}{\Delta} \newcommand{\setdiff}{\backslash} \newcommand{\union}{\cup} \newcommand{\inters}{\cap} \newcommand{\Union}{\bigcup} \newcommand{\Inters}{\bigcap} \newcommand{\nullSet}{\phi} % graph theory \newcommand{\nbd}{\Gamma} % Script alphabets % For reals, use \Re % greek letters \newcommand{\eps}{\epsilon} \newcommand{\del}{\delta} \newcommand{\ga}{\alpha} \newcommand{\gb}{\beta} \newcommand{\gd}{\del} \newcommand{\gp}{\pi} \newcommand{\gf}{\phi} \newcommand{\gh}{\eta} \newcommand{\gF}{\Phi} \newcommand{\gl}{\lambda} \newcommand{\gm}{\mu} \newcommand{\gn}{\nu} \newcommand{\gr}{\rho} \newcommand{\gs}{\sigma} \newcommand{\gth}{\theta} \newcommand{\gx}{\xi} \newcommand{\gw}{\omega} \newcommand{\sw}{\sigma} \newcommand{\SW}{\Sigma} \newcommand{\ew}{\lambda} \newcommand{\EW}{\Lambda} \newcommand{\Del}{\Delta} \newcommand{\gD}{\Delta} \newcommand{\gG}{\Gamma} \newcommand{\gW}{\Omega} \newcommand{\gS}{\Sigma} \newcommand{\gTh}{\Theta} % Bold english letters. \newcommand{\bA}{\mathbf{A}} \newcommand{\bB}{\mathbf{B}} \newcommand{\bC}{\mathbf{C}} \newcommand{\bD}{\mathbf{D}} \newcommand{\bE}{\mathbf{E}} \newcommand{\bF}{\mathbf{F}} \newcommand{\bG}{\mathbf{G}} \newcommand{\bH}{\mathbf{H}} \newcommand{\bI}{\mathbf{I}} \newcommand{\bJ}{\mathbf{J}} \newcommand{\bK}{\mathbf{K}} \newcommand{\bL}{\mathbf{L}} \newcommand{\bM}{\mathbf{M}} \newcommand{\bN}{\mathbf{N}} \newcommand{\bO}{\mathbf{O}} \newcommand{\bP}{\mathbf{P}} \newcommand{\bQ}{\mathbf{Q}} \newcommand{\bR}{\mathbf{R}} \newcommand{\bS}{\mathbf{S}} \newcommand{\bT}{\mathbf{T}} \newcommand{\bU}{\mathbf{U}} \newcommand{\bV}{\mathbf{V}} \newcommand{\bW}{\mathbf{W}} \newcommand{\bX}{\mathbf{X}} \newcommand{\bY}{\mathbf{Y}} \newcommand{\bZ}{\mathbf{Z}} \newcommand{\bba}{\mathbf{a}} \newcommand{\bbb}{\mathbf{b}} \newcommand{\bbc}{\mathbf{c}} \newcommand{\bbd}{\mathbf{d}} \newcommand{\bbe}{\mathbf{e}} \newcommand{\bbf}{\mathbf{f}} \newcommand{\bbg}{\mathbf{g}} \newcommand{\bbh}{\mathbf{h}} \newcommand{\bbk}{\mathbf{k}} \newcommand{\bbl}{\mathbf{l}} \newcommand{\bbm}{\mathbf{m}} \newcommand{\bbn}{\mathbf{n}} \newcommand{\bbp}{\mathbf{p}} \newcommand{\bbq}{\mathbf{q}} \newcommand{\bbr}{\mathbf{r}} \newcommand{\bbs}{\mathbf{s}} \newcommand{\bbt}{\mathbf{t}} \newcommand{\bbu}{\mathbf{u}} \newcommand{\bbv}{\mathbf{v}} \newcommand{\bbw}{\mathbf{w}} \newcommand{\bbx}{\mathbf{x}} \newcommand{\bby}{\mathbf{y}} \newcommand{\bbz}{\mathbf{z}} \newcommand{\0}{\mathbf{0}} \newcommand{\1}{\mathbf{1}} % Caligraphic english alphabet \newcommand{\cA}{\mathcal{A}} \newcommand{\cB}{\mathcal{B}} \newcommand{\cC}{\mathcal{C}} \newcommand{\cD}{\mathcal{D}} \newcommand{\cE}{\mathcal{E}} \newcommand{\cF}{\mathcal{F}} \newcommand{\cG}{\mathcal{G}} \newcommand{\cH}{\mathcal{H}} \newcommand{\cI}{\mathcal{I}} \newcommand{\cJ}{\mathcal{J}} \newcommand{\cK}{\mathcal{K}} \newcommand{\cL}{\mathcal{L}} \newcommand{\cM}{\mathcal{M}} \newcommand{\cN}{\mathcal{N}} \newcommand{\cO}{\mathcal{O}} \newcommand{\cP}{\mathcal{P}} \newcommand{\cQ}{\mathcal{Q}} \newcommand{\cR}{\mathcal{R}} \newcommand{\cS}{\mathcal{S}} \newcommand{\cT}{\mathcal{T}} \newcommand{\cU}{\mathcal{U}} \newcommand{\cV}{\mathcal{V}} \newcommand{\cW}{\mathcal{W}} \newcommand{\cX}{\mathcal{X}} \newcommand{\cY}{\mathcal{Y}} \newcommand{\cZ}{\mathcal{Z}} % Formatting shortcuts \newcommand{\red}[1]{\textcolor{red}{#1}} \newcommand{\blue}[1]{\textcolor{blue}{#1}} \newcommand{\htext}[2]{\texorpdfstring{#1}{#2}} % Statistics \newcommand{\distr}{\sim} \newcommand{\stddev}{\sigma} \newcommand{\covmatrix}{\Sigma} \newcommand{\mean}{\mu} \newcommand{\param}{\theta} \newcommand{\gthEst}{\hat{\theta}} \newcommand{\ftr}{\phi} \newcommand{\est}[1]{\hat{#1}} % General utility \newcommand{\todo}[1]{\textbf{[TODO]}] \footnote{TODO: #1}} \newcommand{\tbc}{[\textbf{Incomplete}]} \newcommand{\chk}{[\textbf{Check}]} \newcommand{\why}{[\textbf{Find proof}]} \newcommand{\opt}[1]{\textit{#1}} \newcommand{\experience}[1]{[\textbf{Personal Experience}]: #1 \blacktriangle} \newcommand{\pf}[1]{[\textbf{Proof}]: #1 \Box} \newcommand{\core}[1]{\textbf{Core Idea}: #1 \Arrowvert} \newcommand{\example}[1]{\textbf{Example}: #1 \blacktriangle} \newcommand{\error}[1]{\textbf{Error alert}: #1 \triangle} \newcommand{\oprob}{[\textbf{OP}]: } \renewcommand{\~}{\htext{$\sim$}{~}} \DeclareMathOperator*{\argmin}{arg\,min} \DeclareMathOperator*{\argmax}{arg\,max} \)

Ioannidis flaws

(AI assisted)

John Ioannidis

“Ioannidis presents an interesting case study in expertise limitations. Despite being a well-respected meta-researcher known for critiquing methodological issues in scientific research, he made several missteps with COVID-19.

From what I can observe, his errors stemmed from several factors:

Early commitment to a position: His March 2020 article calling COVID-19 a “once-in-a-century evidence fiasco” established a perspective that seemed difficult for him to adjust as more evidence accumulated.

Overconfidence in early, limited data: His Santa Clara antibody study suggested much higher prevalence and lower infection fatality rates than later proven accurate, but had significant methodological issues.

Disciplinary blinders: Despite expertise in research methodology, he appeared to underappreciate the complexities of emerging infectious disease dynamics and evolution.

Contrarian positioning: As someone known for challenging consensus, there may have been psychological pressure to maintain a contrarian stance even as evidence mounted against it.

Underestimating uncertainty: Despite advocating for recognizing uncertainty in research, he made surprisingly confident predictions based on limited evidence.

The case illustrates how even distinguished experts can struggle when working outside their core expertise areas, especially when public pronouncements create commitment effects that make changing positions difficult.