Demographics

Source: Rjrasva

Rate

Calculating based on births reported by NBS gives a fertility rate of 1.15-1.16 for China in 2021. Going by the # given by Ministry of Public Security (likely to be more accurate) gives a fertility rate below 1.

Read better sources than outlandish CIA estimates & projections. Start with China’s own NBS, then move onto Fuxian Yi, Jianzhang Liang, Wenzheng Huang, Zhigang Guo, & Baochang Gu. Better because their projections match up better with latest #’s CCP released (still inflated though). You claim there r 1000 ppl in auditorium when there r only 950, most ppl won’t notice but what if its only 500, so better to slowly adjust #’s to reflect reality.

China complexity

For many ppl of diff political ideologies who give demographic hot takes, they have an explanation ready (e. g. feminism, soyboys, housing shortage, not enough gender equality, work hrs) & then they try to force fit reality to that end.

They can’t explain why PRC has a TFR of 1.15 or sub 1 with all its patriotic education, censorship of feminist retards, & wolf warrior shtick.

  • Housing shortage? Hasn’t stopped the Israelis from a baby boom.
  • Gender equality? I don’t think Orthodox or Ultra Orthodox Jews believe in that, sorry.
  • Feminism in South Korea? then what explains similarly ultra low TFR in Taiwan & PRC.
  • Work hrs?
    • Germans worked the fewest hrs in OECD for a while now but over last 10 yrs their TFR used to fluctuate around the same level as Japan & that was with immigrant groups pushing up TFR unlike Japan. Only recently German TFR began pulling away from Japan.
    • TFR for Puerto Rico, now estimated at 0.90 which is below Taiwan but above South Korea, if PR was a country it would have 2nd lowest TFR in world. Don’t think anyone has stereotypes of Ricans as workaholics like Japanese, yet their TFR would be 36% below J.
  • Then we have our own brand of illiterates in vishwaguru land who don’t even realize that the country is below replacement at a per capita GDP of 2000$ & it will fall a lot more in the coming yrs.
  • Some of these same jokers even blame “capitalism” for SK’s ultra low TFR, well how come TFR is below replacement in India at such low levels of income?
  • Not to mention the fact that the stock argument of “China still so rural” for inflating TFR to 1.7 is retarded to anyone with some common sense & knowledge of latest demographic research. What matters is the % of women capable of reproduction in rural areas & that’s much lower. You can’t get 60 year old women to reproduce & 80%+ of the 18-49 age group of women have already moved to cities & many of those who remain want to move (they don’t want to marry farmers). Rural China like many other countries is populated by old people awaiting death.