Source: TW
It is unclear if the marUnmatta-s had any strategy in their current ghazwat. It was heavy on tactical effervescence – something also previously seen with their coreligionist from the occupied pA~nchanada & sindhu – but not clear if it aimed to achieve anything strategically. It that sense it was just like the 9/11 attack – mass civilian deaths for shock value that will draw the attention of the world.
While such a shock value is deeply engrained in the principle of the jihad since its founder, these attacks seem slightly different from say the Kenyan mall ghazwat or 26/11. In the former, there seems to have been a strategic objective directed at Kenya. I also see 26/11 as a deliberate attempt by the marUnmatta-s to paralyze a H economic center and take the sheen of “Indian growth”.
Along with the shock value the current ghazwat also has shades of historical raids to take women+children+booty, going back to the founding of marUnmAda, rather than engage in pitched military confrontations. Perhaps some booty was taken in the form of Israeli armaments. It reminds one of Ahmed Niyaltegin’s assault on kAshI.
But it will probably be a strategic failure for the proximal marUnmatta players just as it was for bin Laden et al in 9/11. The US & its vassals while suffering some Islamic attacks overall managed to stamp out that threat on their own territory. The mistake the US made was the attempt to bring their neo-religious ideologies through conquest to the marUnmatta lands – “democracy” & navyonmAda under piNDaka. This blew on their face.
Given Israel’s military superiority, it is likely to decisively destroy it attackers but (at least to me) it remains an open question if they would succeed in successfully conquering some of the marUnmatta lands and making them their own.
Things could also be complicated if the trans-national neo-con faction tries to expand the conflict in directions they like. You can already see them wanting to blame it on the rUs (!) & open a front with the Islamic state in Iran. There hastin frontend, paTTinI made a ridiculous statement.
None of this might be useful for the Israelis but they could be sucked into it in the heat of the moment. Their situation is different from that of the H. H have enemies on multiple fronts & the mlechCha-s could tacitly help the marUnmatta-s. So at this point from the H perspective a lot is hanging on the Indian intelligence to read any comparable designs the maru-s may have for a ghazwa al-hind.
Shifting alliances
The alliances have changed (in the crusades there were some fierce u2 on u1 attacks & u1 collaboration with u3) but the animating spirit has not. In fact this reconfiguration of the alliance is a recent one. A committee of the early jewish settlers had modest ambitions (E.g. of Old u1-u3 alliance against u2):
“The internal administration to be ours, to have our civil and political rights and to act with the Turkish Empire only in foreign affairs, so as to help our brother Ishmael in the time of his need.”
Thus, because they were not exactly having the best situation in parts of Europe and Russia they wanted to go back to their old land but remain within the Turkish empire & actually help the u3 – as per Abrahamistic origin mythology the Arabs were descendants of the “brother Ishmael” whom they wanted to help. But the Arabs were unsurprisingly not exactly inclined to assent. The Osmans instead told them that if they wanted to leave rUs or ukr they could instead take Turkish citizenship and live elsewhere in their empire but not their old lands. Still they thought it was the best option voicing views like:
“…among our relatives, the Arab tribes, and the civilization of Shem is – wisdom and morality, love and mankind and peace.”
Those nice fuzzy feelings were to eventually face the edge of reality, when they had to turn back on their old Euro neighbors for help. Then came the ascendancy of the US in which they played a central role and new alliance was formed.
US entry
Source: TW
Israel is central to the identity of the American leadership & a significant part of its voting population – perhaps, as an idea, it is even more important than the idea of America for many.
Hence, it is not surprising that many want the US to directly enter the war. Suddenly that has taken precedence over the war with the rUs. It was not for nothing that the crusades were launched.
However, we feel the end-result of a such a US involvement would not be good for the US, which in the past 20+ years has engaged primarily in wars with no clear strategic objectives or even understanding of the targets. This is where they differ from the former leaders of the anglosphere.
Anti-H overlap
Source: TW
The past week has shown that there is a noticeable overlap between the anti-Isr groups & anti-H groups in the occident. The pro-Isr groups are more committed, better organized & more savvy in PR warfare than pro-H groups & nominally H individuals in power in occidental systems. Hence, their counter-attack has struck or in the least, exposed some of our enemies.
We had said several times in the past that navyonmAda is the gateway to marUnmAda. That is also being amply demonstrated by these events. We had also remarked that navyonmAda has split up the u1s. But the attacks have brought it home to a subset of the u1s who support navyonmAda that, ultimately, they have to choose between going against navyonmAda & supporting it. It looks like some are peeling away from navyonmAda. This might be good for H as it weaken the svabhAvavairi.
Restraint perspective
Source: TW
An interesting American neutral perspective: It might anger some because it does a bit of the restraint thing that the Americans like the lecture H when attacked similarly. but a few things are clear:
- The strategic objectives are important while engaging in a war like this need to be clear.
- The pR^iShTabha~njaka American soldier who has actually fought in such battles clearly states that urban warfare with tunnels is just not easy or decisive – something which has been clear from the beginning.
- They largely ignore the whole issue of the clash of counter-religions as a deciding factor in certain outcomes.
- The Western ignorance (in some measure due to Indian marketing) of shrI pUjya mahatmA gAndhIjI (hope law of the land is not dissatisfied) is seen: gandhI would not have worked with the Mongols & he did not work with the British. That’s why I recently said a comparative history of the J and H armed movements against the English tyranny is something to look into. I’ll say more on a sort of funny point they made based on what a late Isr. acquaintance of mine said.
In the above discussion, one them says sort of like a joke what if a part of Germany was given to the Js as reparation for the massacres the G had committed on them. That curious position was exactly what that late Isr. acquaintance made. He felt it was never going to be demographically easy to be peace west Asia. Instead, they should lobbied with the Occidentals and the rUs to get a piece of Germany for them. After all many of them had seen themselves as German or Austrian or spoke a German dialect before the Nazis started massacring them. Ger was completely beaten in WW2 & there were huge # s of G being driven out of their old lands. Hence, some of the German territory could have been carved out for the Js. Eventually when the G were “pacified” then G enclave for the Js & the rest of the G could have lived in relative harmony and quiet. He felt they should have merely sought some cultural space in their ancestral lands for their holy places. Of course, I get it that it doesn’t have much valence – even a less locale-centric people like us would hardly want to trade our long established tIrtha-s and kShetra-s for some other equivalent piece of land just for being away from the marUnmatta-s.
I believe Madagascar, Uganda, Argentina were all considered before Wannsee. Bibi claims that it was the Arabs of Palestine who gave G the ideo of Final Solution. The J enclave experiment was also tried in USSR, Crimea being a choice before settling on Birobidzhian
Yes many places were considered and each might have had its own issues. There were not many takes for the J oblast in Russia as it was not their idea in the first place. I guess barring my idiosyncratic acquaintance they were not keen about europe at all
Gujarat parallel
The mUlavAtUla-marUnmatta-yuddha has shades of “Gujarat” in it. Soon after the marUnmatta-s burnt down H in lATa, their propaganda machinery aided & abetted by the mlechCha-s made it all about them forgetting who were the cause. This was reproduced in the current conflict & some of piNDaka’s backers, the same ones who are ranged against the H, are now threatening to withdraw their support to him if he goes with the mUla-s.Some of the latter who were in the anti-H ranks (including some whom the H were foolishly simping for) are now getting a real taste of their marUnmattAdi friends.
On one hand, this kolAhala among piNDaka’s backers is good for the H but on the other it also give a preview of how the marU-navyonmatta alliance will act against them when the time of the nirNaya comes. As we have said before none of the trayonmAda-s (barring marUnmAda) can act decisively on each other as a fundamental attack one will also be a self-goal. The same holds for navyonmAda.
The mlechCha world is also seeing the paradoxes pertaining to FOE being exposed in rather raw way. They are falling back to the basic dictum FOE is fine when it is for me but not for you. To be clear we are for maximal FOE as long all parties are willing to play fair
2024 09 strike
Source: TW
It seems the ISR bided its time to launch its recent big strike.
(i) It realized that the US (wisely from the standpoint of the American interests) did not want a new big war in West Asia.
(ii) It knew that its own lobby in the US has to a degree been fragmented between the two parties and in the current ruling party there is a bit of an Islamic counterbalance.
(iii) It needed some time to work on the Sauds & the Amirs, who had failed against the Houthis after a US-supported long war.
(iv) It needed to give a false image of relative weakness to the Islamic state in Iran and its proxies.
A solution to all this seems to have come together in this window.
- US is busy with its elections. They are too caught up with their own issues and the war against the rUs to expend too much energy on West Asia.
- This has also given its American lobby a chance to apply some pressure on the gardabhin-s like sphuNTikA – thus neutralizing the leaking counter-lobby to a degree.
- The rUs have been bottled up by the full brunt of the spoiled soybeans effort – the failure to retake Kursk: Hence, ISIR is isolated.
- The Sauds, Amirs, Al Qaeda and ISIS have come over to their side.
- ISIR and proxies feel a false sense of strength.
Then they struck with a bang. However, we think this war is not over yet and it is not fully clear how exactly it would unfold.
Natanyahoo & Iranian people
Source: TW
Wonder if there is more to Natanyahoo directly addressing the Iranian people: are they assisting an anti-Islamic rebellion?
The problem is Iran does not have a strong survival of Zoroastrianism for this: atheism and Marxism will not help.
Probably NY thinks they might instead coalesce around an ethnic identity like his own people but doesn’t seem to have a strong enough pull among Iranians to challenge marUnmAda.
The most obvious explanation is
- There is a significant faction in the Iranian military-political-bureaucracy which wants to move the country into something like Egypt, Turkey or Jordan instead of a theocracy where State is directly ruled by clerics.
- They want a rapprochement with the West and Israel. Maybe not officially recognize Israel, but not have the destruction of the Jewish State as an aim either.
- Netanyahu is addressing himself to this faction and telling them that it is time for an Operation Valkyrie
I refuse to believe Israel is pulling off these attacks without the help of a organized resistance within the Iranian State. The Ayatollah is just like any other absolute ruler. He is ruling with the support of maybe 30% of the pop that has some kind of fiduciary dependence upon the state and the moral support of another 10-20% for ideological reasons. If only 30% of the population does not subscribe to the idea of an Islamic theocracy and another 10% is tired of war, you have the elements for a popular resistance already.
As I alluded (cryptically) a couple of days ago, I don’t disagree that ISR has big human assets inside Iran and has deeply penetrated them. The mullocrats have accepted this themselves. What I’m not sure of it whether ISR can assist these assets to pull off a coup.