Okay, here is my take on what the Taliban will do next. Forward looking statements, so usual disclaimers apply.
Taliban are Deobandis, which means their political goals are local in nature. What they want is to establish a pure Islamic State, one untainted by secular decadence a la Pakistan. The goal of Pakistan was to establish a modern nation-state for subcontinent Muslims. The goal of Taliban is to establish a proper Islamic State in Afghanistan, recover the Pashtun territory across the Durand and prepare for Ghazwa e Hind.
V1.0 had the same aims but suffered from some shortcomings
- They did not have the apparatus to deal with other countries in the form of a Westphalian nation
- They were beholden to foreign funding and military strategy V2.0 does not suffer from the second problem, but has to deal with the first.
Now, in order to have municipal services, registration, census, Healthcare, an Army, foreign relations, they will seek to adapt what Iran has, except that the Emir ’s Shura in Afghanistan will run all affairs directly, through ex fighters that will be employed. They will have to co opt people from the earlier Afghan Govt, but that can be handled by the Soviet ’two-in-a-box’ strategy, where a political commissar oversaw all key roles.
Foreign relations
To my thinking, their initial aims will be to consolidate their rule, establish relations with foreign nations and create the apparatus for a functioning State. Their ambitions will be to free Khyber Pakhtunwa next and cleanse ethnic Hazara and any other undesirables.
This is not ISIS. Doctrinal differences with ISIS are similar to the Bolshevik schism of ‘socialism in one country’ vs Trotskyite ‘Global Revolution ‘.+++(5)+++ One can expect that the next decade will be spent in this before they decide to expand.
Power struggles
There will also be a power struggle and the rise of a single dictator from within the Shura. Expect factional fights and purges, in the next 10-20 years before a powerful State decides to expand.
Indian response
What should our strategy be? We must keep our powder dry. China and Pakistan will look at this as a potential opportunity to make money by arming them. We must ensure that they do not go beyond basic infantry weaponry and work towards ensuring refugees and heroin ever hit our borders.
The Taloban are so insistent on not allowing women to study or gain agency because they have seen what has happened in Iran and they don’t want a repeat. We must cultivate moderates who will eventually move towards suffrage and universal education. Be sure this is a long haul, and will run over several decades.
As long as the Book is around though, we cannot have permanent peace, only a temporary truce.+++(5)+++