Source: TW
Goal
well it’s a real pleasure to be here and to have a chance just to meet with you [[0:23]] and talk about some of the problems that we’re facing
now. some of these problems are local some are national some are [[0:30]] global but they’re all tied together they’re tied together with arithmetic and the arithmetic isn’t very difficult [[0:37]] and what I hope to do is I hope to be able to convince you that the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our [[0:43]] inability to understand the exponential function
Exponential function
so you say
well what’s the [[0:49]] exponential function this is a mathematical function that you would write down if you’re going to describe [[0:55]] the size of anything that was growing steadily if you had something growing 5% per year you’d write the exponential [[1:01]] function to show how large that growing quantity was year after year and
so we’re talking about a situation where [[1:08]] the time that’s required for the growing quantity to increase by a fixed fraction is a constant 5% per year the 5% is a [[1:16]] fixed fraction the per years of fixed length of time
now that’s what we want to talk about it’s Ordinary steady [[1:22]] growth
well if it takes a fixed length of time to grow 5%
it follows it takes a [[1:28]] longer fixed length of time to grow a hundred percent
now that longer time is called a doubling time we need to know [[1:34]] how you calculate the doubling time
and it’s easy you just take the number 70 divide it by the percent growth per unit [[1:41]] time and that gives you the doubling time.
for example of 5% per year you divide the 5 into 70 you find that [[1:48]] growing quantity will double in size every 14 years.
well you might ask where [[1:53]] do the 70 come from the answer is it’s approximately 100 multiplied by the natural logarithm of 2 if you wanted the [[2:00]] time.
to triple you’d use the natural logarithm of 3 -
so it’s all very logical.
but you don’t have to remember where it [[2:07]] came from if you’ll just remember 70
now I wish we could get every person to make [[2:12]] this mental count halation every time we see a percent growth rate of anything in a news story [[2:18]].
Colorado crime
for example if you saw a story that said things have been growing 7% per year for several recent years you wouldn’t bat an [[2:24]] eyelash. but when you see a headline that says crime has doubled in a decade you say - My heavens what’s happening what is [[2:32]] happening 7% growth per year divide the 7 into 70 the doubling time [[2:39]] is 10 years but notice if you’re going to write a headline you never write crime growing 7% per year because most [[2:46]] people wouldn’t know what it really means
now do you know what 7% really means
Colorado ski lift ticket
let’s take another example from [[2:53]] Colorado the cost of an all-day lift ticket to ski at Vail has been growing about 7% per year ever since Vail first [[3:01]] opened in 1963 and at that time you paid $5 for an all-day lift ticket
now what’s [[3:08]] the doubling time for 7% growth 10 years
so what was the cost ten years later in [[3:15]] 1973 ten years later in 1983 ten years [[3:20]] later in 1993 and what do we have to look forward to
now
this is what 7% [[3:29]] means most people don’t have a clue
Plot
well [[3:34]] let’s look at a generic graph of something that’s growing steadily after one doubling time the growing quantities [[3:40]] up to twice its initial size two doubling times it’s up to four times its initial size then it goes to eight 16 32 [[3:47]] 64 128 256 512 in just 10 doubling times [[3:53]] it’s a thousand times larger than when it started and you can see if you tried [[3:58]] to make a graph of that on ordinary graph paper the graph will go right through the ceiling
Chess and grains
now let me give you [[4:05]] an example to show the enormous numbers you get with just a modest number of doublings legend has it that the game of [[4:12]] chess was invented by a mathematician to work for a king the king was very pleased he said I want to reward you and [[4:18]] the mathematician said my needs are modest please take my new chess board and on the first square place one grain of [[4:24]] wheat on the next square double the one make two on the next square double the two to make four just keep doubling till [[4:31]] you double for every square that will be an adequate payment oh we can guess the [[4:36]] King thought this foolish man I was ready to give him a real reward all he asked for is just a few grains of wheat [[4:42]]
well let’s see what’s involved in this we note there are eight grains on the fourth square
now I can get this number [[4:49]] eight by multiplying three twos together it’s 2 times 2 times 2 it’s 1/2 less [[4:54]] than the number of the square
now that follows in each case
so on the last square I’d find the number of grains by [[5:00]] multiplying 63 twos together
now let’s look at the way the totals build up when [[5:06]] we have one grain on the first square the total on the board is 1 we add two grains that makes a total three we put [[5:12]] on four grains
now the total is 7 7 is a grain less than 8 it’s a grain less than [[5:18]] three twos multiplied together 15 is a grain less than four twos multiplied together
well that continues in each [[5:24]] case
so when we’re done the total number of grains have be one grain less than the number I get [[5:30]] multiplying 64 twos together and my question is how much wheat is that you [[5:35]] know would that be a nice pile here in the studio would have filled a building would it cover the county to adapt the [[5:43]] two meters how much wheat are we talking about the answer is it’s roughly 400 [[5:49]] times the 1990 worldwide harvest of wheat
now that could be more wheat than [[5:57]] humans have harvested in the entire history of the earth you say how’d you get such a big number what was simple we [[6:03]] just started with one grain but we let the number grow steadily till it doubled a mere 63 times there’s something else [[6:11]]
that’s very important the growth in any babbling time is greater than the total of all of the preceding growth for [[6:18]] example when we put 8 grains on the fourth square the 8 is larger than the total of 7 that we’re already there when [[6:24]] we put 32 grains on the 6 square the 32 is larger than the total of 31 they were [[6:29]]
already there every time the growing quantity doubles it takes more than all that you’d used [[6:36]] in all of the preceding growth
Energy crisis
now let’s translate that into the energy crisis here’s an ad from the [[6:43]] Year 1975 and it asked the question could America run out of electricity [[6:48]] America depends on electricity our need for electricity actually doubles every 10 or 12 years that’s an accurate [[6:56]] reflection of a very long history of steady growth of the electric industry in this country growth at a rate of [[7:03]] around seven percent per year which goes with doubling every 10 years
now with all that history of growth expected the [[7:09]] growth of just go on forever fortunately it stopped not because anyone understood [[7:15]] the arithmetic it stopped for other reasons but let’s ask what if suppose the growth had continued and we would [[7:23]] see here the thing that we just saw in the chessboard in the ten years following the appearance of this ad in [[7:29]] that decade the amount of electrical energy that we would have consumed in this country would have been greater [[7:35]] than the total of all of the electrical energy we had ever consumed in the [[7:40]] entire preceding history of the steady growth of that industry in this country [[7:46]]
now did you realize that anything is completely acceptable as 7% growth per [[7:52]] year could give such an incredible consequence that in just 10 years you’d use more than the total of all [[7:58]] that have been used in all of preceding history
well that’s exactly what President Carter was referring to in his [[8:05]] famous speech on energy one of his statements was this he said and in each of those decades more oil was consumed [[8:13]] than in all of mankind’s previous history
now by itself that’s a stunning [[8:18]] statement
now you can understand it the president was telling us a simple [[8:23]] consequence of the arithmetic of 7% growth each year in world oil [[8:29]] consumption and that was the historic figure up until the 1970s
Human lifespan
now there’s another beautiful [[8:36]] consequence of this arithmetic if you take seventy years as a period of time and note that that’s roughly one human [[8:43]] lifetime.
then any percent growth continued steadily for 70 years gives you an overall increase by a factor. [[8:49]]
that’s very easy to calculate for example 4% per year you find the factor by multiplying four [[8:57]] twos together it’s a factor of sixteen
Colorado population growth
now a few years ago one of the newspapers here in Boulder quizzed the [[9:04]] nine members of the Boulder City Council and asked them what rate of growth of boulders population do you think it [[9:10]] would be good to have in the coming years
now the nine members of the Boulder City Council gave answers [[9:16]] ranging from a low of 1% per year.
now that happens to match the present rate [[9:21]] of growth of the population of the United States we are not at zero population growth right
now the number [[9:27]] of Americans is increasing by more than 3 million people every year no member of [[9:34]] the City Council said Boulder should grow less rapidly than the United States is growing
now the highest answer any [[9:41]] council member gave was 5% per year.
well you know I felt compelled I had to write [[9:46]] him a letter and say did you know the 5% growth for just seventy I can remember [[9:53]] when seventy years used to seem like an awful long time it doesn’t seem
so long
now
well that means boulders population [[9:59]] would increase by a factor of 32.
that is where today we have one overloaded sewer [[10:06]] treatment plant in 70 years we need 32 overloaded sewer treatment plants
now [[10:12]] did you realize that anything is completely all-american as 5% growth per year could give such an incredible [[10:19]] consequence in such a modest period of time our City Council people had zero [[10:25]] understanding of this very simple arithmetic.
Inflation
well a few years ago I had a [[10:32]] class of non science students we’re interested in problems of science and society we spent a good deal of time [[10:38]] learning to use semi logarithmic graph paper it’s printed in such a way that [[10:44]] these equal intervals along the vertical scale each represent an increase by a factor of 10
so you go from a thousand [[10:51]] to ten thousand to a hundred thousand and the reason to use this special paper is that on this paper a straight line [[10:58]] represents steady growth we worked a lot of examples I said to the students let’s [[11:03]] talk about inflation let’s talk about 7% per year it is high when we did this it’s been [[11:09]] higher since then and fortunately it’s lower
now and I said to the students as I can say to you you have roughly 60 [[11:17]] years life expectancy ahead of you let’s see what some common things will cost if [[11:22]] we have 60 years of 7% annual inflation
well the students found that a 55 cent [[11:28]] gallon the gasoline will cost 35 dollars and 20 cents to 50 for a movie we’ll be [[11:34]] a hundred and sixty dollars the fifteen dollar sack of groceries that my mother [[11:40]] used to buy for a dollar in a quarter that’ll be nine hundred and sixty dollars a hundred dollars to two clothes [[11:47]] $6,400 a four thousand dollar automobile will cost a quarter of a million dollars [[11:52]] and a forty five thousand dollar home will cost nearly three million dollars
well I gave the students these data [[11:59]]
these came from a BlueCross BlueShield ad the ad appeared in Newsweek magazine
the ad gave these figures to show the [[12:06]] cost escalation of gallbladder surgery in the years since 1950 when that surgery cost three hundred and sixty one [[12:13]] dollars
I said make us on my logarithmic plot let’s see what’s happening the students [[12:19]] found that the first four points lined up on a straight line whose slope indicated inflation of about 6% per year [[12:27]] but the fourth fifth and six were on a steeper line almost 10% inflation per [[12:32]] year
well then I said to the students run that steeper line on out to the year 2000
let’s get an idea what gallbladder [[12:39]] surgery might cost the answer is 25 thousand dollars the lesson there is [[12:47]] awfully clear if you’re thinking about gallbladder surgery do it
World population growth
now in the [[12:56]] summer of 1986 the news reports indicated that the world population had [[13:01]] reached the number 5 billion people growing at the rate of 1.7% per year [[13:06]]
well your reaction to 1.7 might be to say that’s
so small I think that could [[13:11]] ever happen at 1.7 percent per year
so you calculate the doubling time you find [[13:16]] it’s only 41 years more recently in 1990 9 we read that the world population had [[13:24]] increased from 5 billion to 6 billion people the good news is that the growth rate had dropped from 1.7 percent per [[13:32]] year to 1.3 percent per year the bad news is that in spite of the drop in the [[13:37]] growth rate the world population today is increasing by something over 80 million people every year
now if this [[13:47]] modest current 1.3 percent per year could continue the world population [[13:52]] would grow to a density of one person per square meter on the dry land surface [[13:58]] of the earth in just seven hundred and eighty years and the mass of people would equal a mass of the earth in just [[14:03]] twenty four hundred years
now we can smile at those we know they couldn’t [[14:09]] happen this one makes for a cute cartoon the caption says excuse me sir but I am [[14:15]] prepared to make you a rather attractive offer for your square
now there’s a very [[14:20]] profound lesson in that cartoon
Zero growth
the lesson is that zero population growth is going to happen
now we can debate [[14:27]] whether we like zero population growth or don’t like it it’s going to happen whether we debate it or not whether we [[14:34]] like it or not it’s absolutely certain people could not live at that density on [[14:39]] the dry land surface of the earth therefore today’s high birth rates will drop today’s low death rates will rise [[14:46]] till they have exactly the same numerical value that will certainly be in a time short compared to 780 years
nature’s options
so [[14:54]] maybe you’re wondering what sort of options are available if we wanted to address the problem in the left-hand [[15:02]] column I’ve listed some of those things that we should encourage if we want to raise the rate of growth of population [[15:07]] and in
so doing make the problem worse
just look at the list everything in the [[15:13]] list is as sacred as motherhood there’s immigration medicine public health [[15:19]] sanitation these are all devoted to the humane goals of lowering the death rate [[15:24]] and that’s very important to me if it’s my death they’re lowering but then I [[15:29]] have to realize that anything that just lowers the death rate makes the population problem worse [[15:35]] there’s peace law-and-order scientific Agriculture’s lowered the death rate due [[15:41]] to famine that just makes the population problem worse the 55 mile an hour speed [[15:46]] limit saved thousands of lives that makes the population problem worse clean [[15:52]] air makes it worse
now in this column are some of the things we should encourage
if we want to lower the rate [[15:58]] of growth of population and in
so doing help solve the population problem
well there’s abstention contraception [[16:05]] abortion small families stop immigration disease war murder famine accidents
now [[16:12]] smoking clearly raises the death rate
now that helps solve the problem
well [[16:19]]
remember our conclusion from the cartoon of one person per square meter we concluded that zero population growth is [[16:26]] going to happen
let’s state that conclusion in other terms and say it’s obvious nature’s going to choose from [[16:32]] the right hand list and we don’t have to do anything except be prepared to live [[16:39]] with whatever nature chooses from that right hand list
Our options
or we can exercise the one option that’s open to us and that [[16:47]] option is to choose first from the right hand list.
we’ve got to find something [[16:52]] here we can go out and campaign for
anyone here for promoting disease we
now [[16:59]] have the capability of incredible war would you like more murder more famine more accidents
well here we can see the [[17:06]] human dilemma because everything we regard as good makes the population problem worse everything we regard as [[17:14]] bad helps solve the problem
now there is a dilemma if ever there was one and the [[17:20]]
one remaining question is education does it go on the left-hand column or the right-hand column
well I’d have to say [[17:26]] thus far it’s been firmly in the left-hand column hasn’t done much about reducing ignorant of the problem and [[17:33]] nature is already choosing from that right-hand list you’ve read about the AIDS epidemic that’s devastating the [[17:42]] continent of Africa I had a friend back from Zimbabwe people he said are dying [[17:47]] on the street nature’s taking care of the problem
Boulder population growth
so [[17:54]] where do we start
well let’s start in Boulder Colorado here’s a graph of boulders population there’s the 1950 US [[18:02]] census figure 1960 1970 in that 20 year period the average growth rate of [[18:08]] boulders population was about 6% per year
now we’ve been able to slow the growth somewhat there’s a 2000 census [[18:16]] figure
well I like to ask the people let’s start with the 2000 census figure [[18:21]] go another 70 years one more human lifetime and ask what rate of growth of [[18:27]] boulders population would we need in that 70 years
so at the end of 70 years boulders population would equal today’s [[18:34]] population of your choice of major American cities what Boulder in 70 years could be as big [[18:40]] as Boston is today if we just grew 2.5 8 percent per year
now if we thought [[18:46]] Detroit was a better model we’ll have to shoot for 3.2 7% per year and remember [[18:53]] the historic figure on the preceding slide 6% per year if that could continue [[18:59]] for one lifetime Boulder would be larger than Los Angeles [[19:04]]
now this isn’t Boulder Plus Broomfield Louisville Lafayette the other towns in the county this is just Boulder
well [[19:11]] it’s obvious you couldn’t put Los Angeles in the Boulder Valley therefore it’s obvious boulders population growth [[19:18]] is going to stop
now the only question is will we be able to stop it while [[19:23]] there’s still some open space or will we wait until it’s wall-to-wall people [[19:28]] and we’re all choking to death
now it’s interesting to read what the Boosters [[19:34]]
Confusion
say some years ago we read the doubling its population in 10 years Boulder is indeed a stable community what world are [[19:43]] they talking about you’re going 100 miles an hour 7% growth per year doubling in less than 10 years and [[19:49]] someone makes the idiotic statement that we’re stable
we’re standing still
we’re not moving they don’t even understand [[19:56]] the meaning of the words that they put down on paper
well every once a while somebody’s [[20:02]] but you know a bigger city might be a better city and I have to say wait a minute we’ve already done that [[20:09]] experiment
LA
don’t need to wonder what will be the effect of growth on Boulder because Boulder tomorrow can be seen in [[20:16]] Los Angeles today and for the price of an airplane ticket we can step seventy [[20:21]] years into the future and see exactly what it’s like and what is it like
well [[20:29]] here’s an interesting headline from Los Angeles that headline probably has [[20:40]] something to do with this headline
so
well how are we doing in Colorado The [[20:48]] Denver Post tells us that we’re the growth capital of the USA and proud of it the Rocky Mountain news tells us to [[20:56]] expect another million people in the Front Range in the next 20 years but in [[21:02]] the post there was an interesting story someone was quoted as saying Colorado has a 3% growth rate that’s like a third [[21:09]] world country with no birth control we send foreign aid family planning [[21:15]] assistance to countries that have smaller population growth rates than Colorado has
well as you can imagine a [[21:24]] growth control is very controversial and I treasure the letter from which these [[21:30]] quotations are taken
now this letter was written to me by a leading citizen of [[21:35]] this community he’s a leading proponent of controlled growth
now control growth [[21:41]] just means growth this man writes I take no exception to your arguments regarding [[21:47]] exponential growth I don’t believe the exponential argument is valid at the local level
so you see arithmetic [[21:57]] doesn’t hold in Boulder
now I have to [[22:02]] admit that man has a degree from the University of Colorado it’s not a degree [[22:08]] in mathematics in science or in engineering [[22:13]]
Bacteria in a bottle
let’s look
now at what happens when we have this kind of steady growth in a finite environment bacteria grow by [[22:20]] doubling and one bacterium divides to become to the to divide to become four the four become eight sixteen and
so on [[22:27]] suppose we had bacteria that doubled in number this way every minute suppose we [[22:32]] put one of these bacteria in an empty bottle at 11:00 in the morning and then observe that the bottles full at 12:00 [[22:38]] noon
now there’s our case of just ordinary steady growth it has a doubling [[22:44]] time of one minute it’s in the finite environment of one bottle I want to ask [[22:50]] you three questions number one at what time was the bottle half full
well would [[22:59]] you believe 11:59 one minute before 12:00 because they double in number [[23:05]] every minute
and the second question if you were an average bacterium in that [[23:11]] bottle at what time would you first realize that you were running out of space?+++(5)+++
now think about this this kind of [[23:22]] steady growth is the centerpiece of the national economy and of the entire [[23:27]] global economy think about it
well let’s just look at the last minutes in the [[23:33]] bottle at 12:00 noon it’s full one minute before it’s half-full two minutes before it’s a quarter full than 1/8 and [[23:40]] 1/16
let me ask you at five minutes before 12:00 when the bottles only three [[23:45]] percent full and is 97% open space just yearning for development how many of you [[23:52]] would realize there was a problem
now in the ongoing controversy over growth in [[23:58]] Boulder someone wrote to the newspaper some years ago and said look there’s any problem with population growth and [[24:04]] Boulder because the writer said we have 15 times as much open space as we’ve [[24:09]] already used
so let me ask you what time was it in Boulder when the open space was 15 times the amount of space we’d [[24:16]] already used the answer is it was 4 minutes before 12 in Boulder Valley
well [[24:24]] suppose that at 2 minutes before 12 some of the back realize that they’re running out of space
so they launched a great search [[24:31]] for new bottles and they searched offshore on the outer continental shelf and the over thrust belt and in the [[24:37]] Arctic and they find three new bottles
now that is a colossal discovery that [[24:44]] discovery is three times the amount of resource they ever knew about before they
now have four bottles before the [[24:51]] discovery there was only one
now surely this will give them a sustainable [[24:56]] Society won’t it would you know what the third question is how long can the [[25:01]] growth continue as a result of this magnificent discovery
well let’s look at [[25:07]] the score at 12noon one bottles fill there are three to go 12:01 two bottles [[25:12]] are filled there two to go in at 12:02 all four are filled and that’s the end [[25:18]] of the line
Oil usage
now you don’t need any more arithmetic than this to evaluate the [[25:24]] absolutely contradictory statements we’ve all heard and read from experts who tell us in one breath we can go on [[25:31]] increasing our rates of consumption of fossil fuels in the next breath they say but don’t worry we’ll always be able to [[25:38]] make the discoveries of new resources that we need to meet the requirements of that growth
well some years ago in [[25:44]] Washington our energy secretary observed that in the energy crisis we have a [[25:50]] classic case of exponential growth against a finite source
so let’s look at [[25:58]] some of these finite sources from the work of the late dr. M king Hubbert we [[26:03]] have here his semi logarithmic plot of world oil production the lines been approximately straight for over a [[26:10]] hundred years clear up here to the Year 1970 average growth rate very close to [[26:15]] 7% per year
so it’s logical to ask
well how much longer could that 7% continue [[26:21]]
well that’s answered by the numbers in this table in the top line the numbers tell us that in the year 1973 world oil [[26:29]] production was twenty billion barrels the total production in all of history including that twenty was three hundred [[26:35]] billion the remaining reserves seventeen hundred billion
now those are data the [[26:41]] - this table has just calculated out assume that the historic 7% growth continued steadily each year following [[26:48]] 1973 exactly as it had been for the preceding 100 years
now in fact the [[26:55]] growth stopped not because of the arithmetic could stop because OPEC raised their oil prices
so we’re asking [[27:02]] what if suppose the growth had continued let’s go back to the Year 1981 by 1981 [[27:09]] on the 7% curve the total usage in all of history would add up to 500 billion [[27:14]] barrels the remaining reserves 1500 billion the reserves at that point are three times the total of all that have [[27:22]] been used in all of history that’s an enormous reserve but what time [[27:27]] is it when the remaining reserve is three times a total of all you’ve used in all of history and the answer is two [[27:34]] minutes before twelve
well we know for 7% growth the doubling time is ten years [[27:40]] we go from 1981 to 1991 by 1991 on the 7% curve the total usage in all of [[27:47]] history would add up to a thousand billion barrels that’d be a thousand billion left at that point the remaining [[27:53]] oil would be equal in quantity to the total of all that we had used in something like a hundred and thirty [[28:00]] years of the oil industry on this earth by most measures you’d say that is an enormous remaining reserve but what time [[28:08]] is when the remaining reserve is equal to all that you’ve used in all of [[28:14]] history and the answer is it’s one minute before twelve
so we go one more [[28:19]] decade to the turn of the century that’s like right
now that’s one 7% would finish using up the [[28:26]] oil reserves of the earth
now let’s look at this in a very nice graphical way suppose the area of this tiny rectangle [[28:34]] represents all the oil we used on this earth before 1940 then in the decade of [[28:39]] the 40s we use this much that’s equal to the total of all that have been used in all of history in the decade of the 50s [[28:45]] we use this much that’s equal to the total of all that have been used in all of history in the decade of the 60s we [[28:52]] use this much and again that’s equal to the toll of all the preceding usage
now here we see graphically what President Carter [[28:59]] told us
now if that 7% had continued through the 70s 80s and 90s there is [[29:05]] what we need but that’s all the oil there is
now there’s a widely held [[29:11]] belief that if you throw enough money at holes in the ground oil is sure to come up
well there will [[29:16]] be discoveries and new oil there may be major discoveries but look we have to discover this much new oil if we would [[29:23]] have that 7% growth continue ten more years will ask yourself what do you [[29:28]] think is the chance that oil discovered after the close of our class today will be in an amount equal to the total of [[29:35]] all that we’ve known about in all of history and then realize if all that new oil could be found that would be [[29:42]] sufficient to let the historic 7% growth continue ten more years [[29:49]]
well it’s interesting to read what the experts say here’s an interview and Time magazine with one of the most widely [[29:55]] quoted oil experts in all of Texas they asked him but haven’t many of our bigger fields been drilled nearly dry he [[30:02]] responds saying there’s still as much oil to be found in the US as has ever been produced
now let’s assume he’s [[30:09]] right what time is it and the answer is [[30:15]] it’s one minute before 12:00
I’ve read several things this guy’s written I don’t think he has any understanding of [[30:22]] this very simple arithmetic
Coal
well in the crisis back in the 70s ads [[30:28]] such as this appeared this is from the American Electric Power Company it was a bit reassuring
so they’re saying
now [[30:34]] don’t worry too much because we’re sitting on half of the world’s known supply of coal enough for over 500 years [[30:42]]
now where did that 500 year figure come from
well it may have had its origin in [[30:49]] this report to the Committee on interior and insular affairs of the United States Senate because in that report we find [[30:56]] this sentence at current levels of output and recovery these American coal reserves can be expected to last more [[31:03]] than 500 years there is one of the most dangerous statements [[31:08]] in the literature it’s dangerous because it’s true but it isn’t the truth that [[31:14]] makes it dangerous the danger lies in the fact that people take the sentence apart [[31:19]] they just say coal will last 500 years they forget the caveat with which the [[31:24]] sentence started and what were those opening words at current levels
now what [[31:30]] does that mean it means if and only if we maintain zero growth of coal [[31:35]] production in this country
so let’s look at a few numbers we go to the annual [[31:40]] energy review published by the US Department of Energy they give this figure as the coal demonstrated reserve [[31:47]] base
and it carries a footnote that says about half the demonstrated reserve base is estimated to be recoverable you [[31:54]] cannot recover and use a hundred percent of the coal that’s in the ground
so this [[31:59]] number is half of this number and we’ll come back to those in just a moment
now the report also tells us that in the [[32:06]] year 1971 we were mining coal in this country at this rate 20 years later 1991 [[32:13]] we were minding it’s this rate put those numbers together and the average growth rate of coal production in those 20 [[32:19]] years was 2.8 6% per year and
so we have to ask
well how long could a resource [[32:25]] last if you had steady growth in the rate of consumption till the last bit of it was used
well I’ll just show you that [[32:33]] equation for the exploration time I’ll tell you it takes first year college calculus to derive that equation
so it [[32:40]] can’t be very difficult you know I have a feeling there must be dozens of people in this country I’ve had first-year [[32:47]] college calculus but let me suggest I think that equations probably the [[32:52]] best-kept scientific secret of the century
now let me show you why if you use that [[32:59]] equation to calculate the life expectancy of the reserve base or the [[33:06]] 1/2 the reserve base that’s estimated to be recoverable for different steady rates of growth you find if the growth [[33:12]] rate is zero the a small estimate would go about 240 years the large one would [[33:17]] go close to 500 years
so that report to the Congress is correct but look what we get when we [[33:24]] plug in steady growth back in the 1970s we had national goal of achieving 8% per [[33:32]] year growth rate in coal production in the United States if that could be achieved and continued coal will last [[33:39]] between 37 and 46 years President Carter [[33:44]] cut that goal roughly in half hoping to reach four percent per year if that could continue coal would last between [[33:49]] 59 and 75 years here’s that 2.86 that we just saw the [[33:55]] average for a recent 20 year period if that could continue coal would run out between 72 and 94 years that’s within [[34:03]] the life expectancy of children born today the only way we’re going to get anywhere near this widely quoted 500 [[34:10]] year figure is to do simultaneously two highly improbable things number one [[34:18]] we’ve got to figure out how to use a hundred percent of the coal that’s in the ground number two we’ve got to [[34:26]] figure out how to have five hundred years of zero growth of coal production [[34:32]]
now these are simple facts just look at [[34:39]] those numbers I got a report recently from the coal fields of Kentucky West [[34:46]] Virginia Virginia these giant bituminous coal fields that supply a large fraction [[34:53]] of the electricity in the eastern United States they estimate that maybe they [[34:59]] have another 30 years of coal mining before it will become uh Nicole to mine [[35:05]] there and then what will we do when we want to switch on the lights [[35:22]]
Lies on resource sufficiency
let’s
now go back and note that in the 1970s there was great national concern [[35:27]] about energy but this concern disappeared in the 80s
now the concerns about energy in the 70s prompted experts [[35:34]] journalists and scientists to assure the American people that there was no reason to be concerned
so let’s go back
now and [[35:40]] look at some of those assurances from the 70s
so we can see what to expect as the energy crisis returns
here is the [[35:50]] director of the energy division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratories he’s telling us how expensive it is to import [[35:56]] oil telling us we must have big increases in our use of coal under these conditions he estimates America’s coal [[36:03]] reserves are
so huge they could last a minimum of three hundred years probably a maximum of a thousand years
now you’ve [[36:10]] just seen the facts
now you see what an expert tells us and what can you conclude
there was a three-hour [[36:17]] television special on CBS on energy the reporter said by the lowest estimate we [[36:22]] have enough coal for 200 years but the highest enough for more than a thousand years you’ve just seen the facts
now you [[36:29]] see what a journalist tells us after careful study and what can you conclude
in the Journal of chemical education on [[36:37]] the page for high school chemistry teachers an article written by the scientific staff of the journal we read [[36:44]] that our proof coal reserves are enormous and they give a figure these could satisfy present US energy needs [[36:49]] for nearly a thousand years let’s do long division you take the coal they say as they’re divided by what was then the [[36:56]] current rate of consumption and you get a hundred and eighty years
now they didn’t say current rate of consumption [[37:02]] they said present US energy needs coal today supplies about one-fifth around [[37:07]] twenty percent of the energy that we use in this country
so if you’d like to calculate how long this quantity of coal [[37:13]] could satisfy present US energy needs you have to multiply this denominator by five when you do that you get 36 years [[37:21]] they said nearly a thousand years Newsweek magazine in a cover story on [[37:27]] energy set at present rates of consumption we have enough coal for six hundred and sixty six point five years [[37:33]] and the point five means they think it will run July instead of January
now if you round [[37:40]] that off and say roughly 600 years 600 is close enough to 500 to lie within the [[37:46]] uncertainty of our knowledge of the size of the resource
so with that observation that is a correct statement at present [[37:53]] rates meaning zero growth we have enough coal for around 600 years the whole [[37:58]] point of the story that this led into was that we have to have rapid growth in coal consumption in the United States [[38:04]]
now it’s obvious isn’t it if you have the growth or writing about it won’t last as long as they said it would last [[38:10]] was zero growth they never mentioned this
I wrote him a long letter called him I thought this was a serious [[38:17]] misrepresentation to give the readers the feeling that we can have all the growth that the writing about and still [[38:22]] have coal around for 650 years I got back a nice farm letter it had nothing [[38:27]] to do with what I tried to explain to them
I gave this talk at a high school [[38:33]] in Omaha and after the talk the high school physics teacher came to me and he had a booklet he said have you seen this [[38:38]] I haven’t seen it he said look at this we’ve got coal coming out of our ears as [[38:44]] reported by Forbes magazine
now that’s a prominent business magazine the United [[38:50]] States has 437 billion tons of known coal reserves that is a good figure this [[38:56]] is equivalent to a lot of BTUs or its enough energy to keep 100 million large [[39:02]] electric generating plants going for the next eight hundred years or
so
now the [[39:07]] teacher said to me how can that be true that’s one large electric generating plant for every two people in the United [[39:14]] States I said of course it can’t be true it’s absolute nonsense let’s do long division to see how crazy [[39:21]] it is
so you take the coal they say as they’re divided by what was then the current rate of consumption you find you [[39:27]] couldn’t keep that rate up for 800 years we hardly have 500 large electric generating plants they said it would be [[39:34]] good for a hundred million such plants
Time magazine tells us the beneath of [[39:40]] pets heads of Appalachia and the Ohio Valley and under the sprawling strip mines of the West like coal seems rich [[39:48]] enough to meet the country’s power and for centuries no matter how much energy consumption may grow and
so
I give you a [[39:55]] very fundamental observation
don’t believe any prediction of the life expectancy of a non-renewable resource [[40:02]] until you have confirmed the prediction by repeating the calculation as a [[40:07]] corollary we have to note that the more optimistic the prediction the greater is the probability that it’s based on [[40:14]] faulty arithmetic or on no arithmetic at all
again from Time magazine energy [[40:22]] industries agree that to achieve some form of energy self-sufficiency the US must mine all the coal that it can
now [[40:29]] think about that for just a moment let me paraphrase it the more rapidly we [[40:35]] consume our resources the more self-sufficient will be no isn’t that [[40:40]] what it says
well david brower call this the policy of strength to exhaustion
now [[40:47]] here’s an example of strength through exhaustion
here is William Simon energy advisor to the President of the United [[40:53]] States Simon Says we should be trying to get as many holes drilled as possible to get the proven oil reserves the more rapidly [[41:01]] we can get the last of that oil up out of the ground and finish using it the better off we’ll be
well let’s look at [[41:10]] dr. Hubbard’s graph for oil production in the lower 48 states there was a long period of approximately steady growth [[41:16]] indicated by this straight line on the semi logarithmic plot but for quite a while
now production has fallen below [[41:22]] the growth curve while our demand continued on up this growth curve until the 1970s
now it’s obvious the [[41:28]] difference between those two curves has to be made up with imports and it was in early 1995 that the news told us that [[41:36]] the Year 1994 was the first year in our nation’s history in which we had to [[41:41]] import more oil than we were able to get out of our own ground
Better model for resource consumption
well maybe you’re [[41:48]] wondering does it make any sense to imagine that we could have steady growth in the rate of consumption of a resource [[41:53]] till the last bit of it was used and then the rate of consumption would plunge abruptly to zero I say no that [[42:00]] does not make sense you say all right why bother us then with the calculation of this exploration [[42:05]] time my answer is this every segment of our society our business leaders government leaders political leaders the [[42:12]] local level state level national level everyone aspires to maintain a society [[42:17]] in which all measures of material consumption continued to grow steadily year after year after year world without [[42:24]] end
now since that’s
so central to everything we do we ought to know where [[42:29]] it would lead
on the other hand we should recognize there is a better model we turn again to the work of the late [[42:36]] dr. Hubbard he has plotted the rate of consumption of resources that have already expired he finds yes there is an [[42:43]] early period of steady growth in the rate of consumption but then the rate goes through a maximum and comes back [[42:48]] down in a nice symmetric bell-shaped curve
Oil production modelling
and when he fitted this curve to the data on US oil production back in [[42:55]] the 1970s he found that at that point we were right about there we were one halfway through that enormous resource [[43:02]]
now that’s roughly what that Texas expert said in the quotation we saw [[43:08]] earlier
now let’s see what it means it means that from
now on domestic oil [[43:13]] production can only go downhill and it’s downhill all the rest of the way and it [[43:19]] doesn’t matter what they say inside the beltway in Washington DC
now it means we [[43:24]] could work hard and put some bumps on the downhill side of the curve you’ll see there are bumps on the uphill side [[43:30]] the debate is heating up over drilling in the Arctic Wildlife Refuge I’ve seen the estimate that they might find 3.2 [[43:38]] billion barrels of oil up there 3.2 billion is the area of that little tiny [[43:43]] square that’s less than one year’s consumption in the United States
now [[43:49]] let’s look at the curve in this way the area under the entire curve represents [[43:54]] the entire resource of US petroleum before any of it was used
now that area [[44:00]] has been divided here into three parts unshaded on the left that’s the oil we’ve taken from the ground we’ve used [[44:06]] it it’s gone this vertical shaded band that’s the oil we’ve drilled into we [[44:11]] found it we’re pumping on it today shaded and green on the right is the undiscovered oil we have very [[44:17]] good ways
now of estimating how much oil remains undiscovered this is the [[44:22]] undiscovered oil this is the oil we’re looking for in all those places where drilling is going on this is the oil [[44:28]] we’ve got to find if we’re going to make it down the curve on schedule
now every [[44:33]] once while someone reminds me that a hundred years ago someone did a calculation and predicted that the US [[44:39]] would be out of oil perhaps in 25 years we obviously were not the calculation must have been wrong therefore of course [[44:46]] all calculations are wrong
well
now let’s understand what they did a hundred years ago this band of [[44:53]] discovered oil a hundred years ago was way over and here someplace at that point they had no idea how much [[45:00]] oil was undiscovered
so they just took the discovered oil divided by how rapidly it was then being consumed come [[45:06]] up with 25 years
now it’s clear you have to make a new calculation every time you make a new discovery [[45:12]] we’re not asking today how long will the discovered oil last we’re asking about the discovered and the undiscovered [[45:19]] we’re
now asking about the rest of the oil and what is the geological survey [[45:24]] tell us back in 1984 they said that the estimated supply in the u.s. from [[45:30]] undiscovered resources and demonstrated reserves is 36 years at present rates of [[45:36]] production or 19 years in the absence of imports five years later in 1989 that 36 [[45:43]] years is down to 32 years the 19 years is down to 16 years
so the numbers are [[45:48]] holding together as we march down the right hand side of the Hubbard curve
so [[45:54]] maybe you’re wondering
well why didn’t somebody tell us this it was back in 1956 dr. Hubbard addressed a convention [[46:02]] of petroleum geologists and engineers he told him that his calculations led him to conclude that the peaks of US oil and [[46:09]] gas production that you just saw can be expected to occur between 1966 and 1971 [[46:16]] no one took him seriously
so let’s see what’s happened the data here are from [[46:22]] the Department of Energy
so this is US oil production we see a long period of approximately steady growth here’s the [[46:29]] year 1950 when dr. Hubbard did his analysis and he said at that time that the peak would [[46:35]] occur between 1966 and 1971
well the peak occurred in 1970 it was [[46:42]] followed by a very rapid decline then the Alaska Pipeline started delivering [[46:47]] its first oil and there was a partial recovery that production has
now peaked and everything’s going downhill in [[46:54]] unison and when I go to a spreadsheet on my computer at home and I find the [[46:59]] parameters of the curve that is the best fit to these scattered us data from that best fit curve it looks to me as though [[47:06]] we have consumed three quarters of the recoverable oil that was ever in our ground and we’re
now coasting downhill [[47:13]] on that last 25 percent of the oil
well [[47:18]] we have to ask what’s the Department of Energy doing about this and here in 1998 [[47:24]] we read about a new comprehensive national energy strategy a set of policy goals that include halting the slide in [[47:32]] US oil production by the Year 2005
now ask yourself what do you think is the [[47:39]] chance that we can do anything more than put a little bump on the downhill side [[47:45]] of the curve
well what does this mean
let’s look at the definition of modern [[47:52]] agriculture it’s the use of land to convert petroleum into food and we can [[47:58]] see the end of the petroleum
well we have to ask about world petroleum and in [[48:06]] 1972 dr. Hubbard produced this curve and he suggested that he thought the peak of [[48:11]] world production would occur around 1995
so we have to go to the data and see [[48:17]] what has happened here again from our Department of Energy but this
now is [[48:22]] world oil production and we can see a long period of steady growth of oil production there was quite a major drop [[48:28]] right there then there was a recovery then is simply an enormous drop and a partial recovery here
so it’s clear [[48:35]] we’re not yet over the peak each of those drops that you saw there was due [[48:40]] to a price hike from OPEC and I think that those drops in delay the arrival of the peak are they reason [[48:47]] for the fact that the peak will occur later than dr. Robert had projected it to be
well I go back to my spreadsheet [[48:54]] on my computer at home and
now in addition to just fitting the curve since the curve has not started down I can’t [[49:01]] get a very good fit for the curve for the area under the curve but what I have to do then is to go to the geology [[49:07]] literature and find out what is the consensus figure among geologists as to [[49:13]] the total amount of oil we’ll ever find on this earth
well this consensus figure [[49:19]] is 2,000 billion barrels
now that’s uncertain it has an uncertainty maybe 40% plus or minus 40% oh it’s a very [[49:26]] uncertain figure but that’s the consensus figure if I do that and do the fit there is the curve the curve has a [[49:34]] peak in the year 2004
now if I say let’s [[49:40]] assume there’s 50% more oil than the geology consensus then the fit gives me [[49:45]] the Year 2019 for the peak and if I assume there’s twice as much oil as the consensus figure then the peaks back to [[49:52]] the year 2030
now look at those curves in your life expectancy you are going to [[49:58]] see the peak of world oil production
and you’ve got to ask yourself what’s life [[50:04]] going to be like on this earth when we have production declining and we have a [[50:10]] growing population and a growing per-capita demand for oil
now just think about it this isn’t rocket science this [[50:17]] is something that we can all think about in the March issue of Scientific American for the year 1998 there was a [[50:25]] major article by two real petroleum geologists ones in England ones in France they said that their estimate for [[50:33]] this peak was that it would occur but for the year 2010
so their estimate and [[50:39]] the one I’m showing you here that I’ve made these are in the same ballpark and we’re talking about the same kind of [[50:46]] numbers
now that analysis that was in Scientific American caused a lot of [[50:51]] discussion and in particular in Fortune magazine in 1999 commenting [[50:58]] this scientific analysis that was done by petroleum geologist we find an emeritus professor of economics at MIT [[51:05]] saying that this analysis is a piece of foolishness the world will never run out of oil not in 10,000 years
and
so we [[51:16]] have non scientists telling us that petroleum reserves are greater than ever before in history and we have geologists [[51:22]] telling us that we’re finding only one barrel of new oil for every four barrels we take out of the ground and consume [[51:29]] what is going on here you’ve seen the [[51:34]] figures here in 1999 us lower 48 states anyou Airi all out but hit a 50-year low [[51:41]] exactly what you expect is you’re going down the right-hand side of the Hubbard curve and one of dr. Hubbard’s favorite [[51:48]] graphs is this one this is on a timescale from 5000 years ago to 5,000 [[51:54]] years in the future and the age of fossil fuels is a little blip in the middle of the screen [[52:00]] think about it
well we have to ask about new discoveries here in 1993 we read [[52:07]] about the largest oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico in the past 20 years an estimated 700 million barrels of oil
now [[52:16]] that’s a lot of oil but a lot compared to what at that point we were consuming [[52:22]] in the United States sixteen point six million barrels of oil every day do the [[52:28]] long division and you find that entire discovery would serve our needs for 42 [[52:33]] days and that’s the biggest discovery they’ve made in the Gulf of Mexico in 20 [[52:38]] years on the front page of The Wall Street Journal in 1997 we read about the [[52:45]] new Hibernia oil field off the south coast of Newfoundland please note this [[52:50]] one line in the headline
now it will last 50 years and let’s go to that story [[52:56]] in The Wall Street Journal and read about the Hibernia field it’s one of the largest oil discoveries in North America [[53:03]] and decades it should deliver its first oil by the end of the year at least 20 more fields may follow offering
well [[53:09]] over a billion barrels of high-quality rude promising a steady flow of oil will [[53:15]] be just a quick tanker run away from the energy thirsty East Coast they may find [[53:20]] a billion barrels of oil in that undersea deposit
so a billion barrels [[53:27]]
we’re
now consuming something like 18 million barrels a day do the long [[53:32]] division and that whole supply wouldn’t it meet our needs in the United States for 56 days
and what did that headline [[53:40]] say it said 50 years
well
Ethanol
some people [[53:47]] say there’s nothing to worry about and here we have a very prominent figure who [[53:52]] says that we should grow corn distill it into ethanol and we can run the entire [[53:57]] fleet of US vehicles on ethanol derived from corn and in support of this he says [[54:02]] today ethanol production displaces over 43 and a half million barrels of imported oil annually
now that sounds [[54:09]] pretty good until you think
now the first thing that you have to do is to [[54:15]] ask okay 43 and a half million what fraction is that of the annual consumption of petroleum and vehicles in [[54:22]] the United States the answer is its 1% you’d have to multiply corn production [[54:27]] devoted to ethanol by a factor of 100 just to make the numbers come out right [[54:33]] and I’ve seen the suggestion that that would take all the remai of the agricultural land in the United States [[54:39]]
now the second problem is it takes diesel fuel to plow the ground to plant [[54:45]] the corn it takes fossil fuels to make the fertilizer to make the corn grow it [[54:50]] takes more diesel fuel to tend the corn and to harvest the corn it takes more energy to do the distillation you [[54:56]] finally get a gallon of ethanol you will be lucky if there’s as much energy in [[55:02]] the gallon of ethanol as it took to produce it it’s a loser yet this guy [[55:09]] says don’t worry everything will be all right
Growth vs decline
well there’s a lesson here and the [[55:15]] lesson is that we cannot let other people do our thinking for us+++(5)+++
let’s take [[55:21]] another look at world oil production
now the graph here is slightly too from the one I showed earlier what I’m [[55:28]] showing here is per capita production of oil which means that at every point I [[55:33]] take the world production divided by the world population that year
now the scale here on the vertical axis is leaders per [[55:40]] person each day there’s the number two
now two liters of person a day two [[55:45]] liters is about half a gallon
now notice that the peak occurred in the 1970s and [[55:52]] it’s been going downhill and in the 1970s it was a little over two liters of [[55:57]] person a day and
now it’s down to about 1.7 liters per person each day
so we can [[56:04]] say with confidence that any day that any one of us uses more than 1.7 liters [[56:11]] of petroleum directly or indirectly we’re using more than our share
now [[56:19]] what’s the average consumption in the United States and the answer is up it’s up around 8 liters a person a day
so [[56:26]] think about the inequity that’s represented there
now there’s something even more important in this graph that [[56:32]] peak in the 1970s
I think that historians in the future will look back [[56:37]] at this peak and say that was a major turning point in all of human history [[56:46]] that’s the point where per-capita consumption of petroleum reached its [[56:53]] peak before it started its inevitable decline and there isn’t any way I can [[56:59]] see that we can reverse that trend that downward trend given the world [[57:05]] population growth and given the fact that we’re right close to the peak of world production
well doctor Hobart [[57:13]] addressed a committee of the Congress he told them that the exponential phase of the industrial growth which has [[57:19]] dominated human activities during the last couple of centuries is
now drawing to a close yet during the last two [[57:26]] centuries of unbroken industrial growth we have evolved what amounts to an exponential growth culture I would say [[57:33]] it’s more than a culture it’s our national religion because we worship [[57:38]] growth pick up any newspaper you see headlines such as this state forecast robust [[57:44]] growth have you ever heard of a physician diagnosing a cancer in the patient and telling the patient you have [[57:50]] a robust cancer we had Americans being killed in the Gulf War what’s this [[57:56]] person worried about he doesn’t care about people he doesn’t care about people being killed all he’s worried [[58:03]] about is oh the Gulf situation may hurt Colorado’s growth
now this incredible [[58:09]] addiction is not limited to the United States The Wall Street Journal tells us that the Japanese are so accustomed to [[58:16]] growth that economists in tokyo usually speak of a recession as anytime the [[58:21]] growth rate dips below 3% per year
Plan
so [[58:27]] what do we do?
in the words of Winston Churchill sometimes we have to do what [[58:33]] is required we must educate all of our people to an understanding of the [[58:39]] arithmetic and the consequences of growth especially in terms of populations and in terms of the Earth’s [[58:46]] finite resources
we must educate people to recognize the fact the growth of [[58:51]] populations and growth of rates of consumption of resources cannot be sustained
now the world is full of [[58:58]] people who are yakking about sustainability
now some of them are doing serious good things like trying to [[59:05]] reduce energy consumption and things like this some of them are just trying to attack the word attack the word [[59:12]] sustainability under whatever they’re doing whether it’s sustainable or not we’ve got to understand the first law of [[59:18]] sustainability and it follows directly from what I’ve just been talking about
the first law of sustainability is this [[59:25]] population growth and/or growth and the rates of consumption of resources cannot [[59:30]] be sustained
now this follows from the arithmetic of steady growth that we spent time [[59:36]] developing
so this isn’t an opinion opinions are debatable this is fact there’s nothing here to debate you [[59:43]] cannot sustain population growth you cannot sustain growth in the rates of consumption of resources and
so it’s [[59:50]] intellectually dishonest to talk about sustainability without stressing the obvious fact the stopping [[59:56]] population growth is a necessary condition for sustainability
now it’s [[1:00:01]] not sufficient stopping population growth in itself is not sufficient but there’s no way you can have [[1:00:07]] sustainability if you don’t stop population growth we need to educate [[1:00:13]] people to see the need to examine carefully the allegations of the technological optimists who assure us [[1:00:18]] that science and technology will always be able to solve all of our problems of population growth food energy and [[1:00:26]] resources
now chief among these optimist was the late dr. Julian Simon formerly [[1:00:32]] professor of economics and Business Administration at the University of Illinois and later at the University of [[1:00:39]] Maryland
with regard to copper Simon has written that we will never run out of copper because copper can be made from [[1:00:46]] other metals+++(4)+++
well the letters to the [[1:00:51]] editor jumped all over him told him about chemistry he just brushed it off he said don’t worry if it’s ever [[1:00:57]] important to figure out how to make copper out of other metals Simon had a [[1:01:03]] book that was published by the Princeton University Press and in that book he’s writing about oil from many sources [[1:01:09]] including biomass and he says clearly there’s no meaningful limit to this source except for the sun’s energy he [[1:01:16]] goes on to note but even if our Sun were not
so vast as it is there may
well be other suns elsewhere Simon’s right there [[1:01:28]] are other suns elsewhere but
now the question is would you base public policy [[1:01:33]] on the belief that if we ever need another Sun we’ll figure out how to go get it and haul it back into the solar [[1:01:40]] system
now don’t laugh for decades before his death this man was a trusted [[1:01:48]] policy adviser at the very highest levels in Washington DC here’s a [[1:01:54]] quotation from one of his strong supporters there was a UN report that talked about the possibility of resource [[1:02:01]] collapsed because of population growth and when asked about the report HUD secretary Jack Kemp [[1:02:07]] nonsense people are not a drain on the resources and the planet Malcolm Forbes [[1:02:14]] jr. editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine tells us in an editorial that CNN [[1:02:20]] recently ran a silly series purporting to show that the worlds in mortal danger because there are too many of us in the [[1:02:27]] repor countries the many mouths mean poverty and richer countries were wrecking the Earth’s atmosphere with [[1:02:32]] pollution it’s all nonsense
Bill Moyers interviewed Isaac Asimov he [[1:02:39]] asked Asimov what happens to the idea of the dignity of the human species if this population growth continues and Asimov [[1:02:46]] says it will be completely destroyed I’d like to use what I call my bathroom metaphor if two people live in an [[1:02:53]] apartment and the two bathrooms and both have freedom of the bathroom you can go to the bathroom anytime you want stay as [[1:02:59]] long as you want for whatever you need and everyone believes in freedom of the bathroom it should be right there in the [[1:03:05]] Constitution but if you have 20 people in the apartment and two bathrooms and [[1:03:11]] no matter how much every person believes in freedom of the bathroom there’s no such thing you have to set up times for [[1:03:17]] each person yet to bang on the door aren’t you through yet and so on and
Asimov concluded with what I think is [[1:03:24]] one of the most profound observations I’ve seen in years Asimov says in the same way democracy [[1:03:31]] cannot survive overpopulation
human dignity cannot survive overpopulation
[[1:03:39]] convenience and decency cannot survive overpopulation
as you put more and more people into the world the value of life [[1:03:45]] not only declines it disappears it doesn’t matter if someone dies the more people there are the less one individual [[1:03:53]] matters
Democracy consequence
now let me give you two examples of this destruction of democracy by population growth I joined the faculty [[1:04:00]] here in 1950 at that time the population of Boulder was about 20,000 there were [[1:04:06]] nine members of the City Council today it’s approaching a hundred thousand there are nine members of the City [[1:04:12]] Council
so in a little over 50 years the number of people per member of the City [[1:04:18]] Council has increased by a factor of five democracy and Boulder has declined to 20% of what it was 50 years [[1:04:26]] ago and the second example has to do with the year 2000 national census this [[1:04:32]] showed that in the decade of the 90s the US population increased by about 13 [[1:04:37]] percent
now this means every House seat in the House of Representatives
now has [[1:04:44]] 13 percent more constituents on the average than they did 10 years ago [[1:04:50]] and in the last one hour the world population is increased by about 10,000 people and the population of the United [[1:04:57]] States in this one hour has increased by about 280 people
Population growth
and we have to ask why [[1:05:04]] don’t more us environmentalists and environmental organizations speak out about the problem of population growth [[1:05:09]] here in the United States the simple arithmetic makes it absolutely clear [[1:05:14]] that long-term preservation of the environment in the u.s. is impossible in [[1:05:20]] the face of continued u.s. population growth but you hear all sorts of political leaders say all we can have [[1:05:26]] our growth we’ll call it smart growth and smart growth will save the environment
well we need to know about [[1:05:31]] smart growth smart growth destroys the environment dumb growth destroys the [[1:05:37]] environment
now smart growth just destroys the environment with good taste
so it’s a little like buying a ticket on [[1:05:44]] the Titanic if you’re smart you go first class if you’re dumb you go steerage but [[1:05:49]] the results the same
so central to the things that we must do is to recognize [[1:05:55]] the population growth is the immediate cause of all of our resource and environmental crises and of all the [[1:06:02]] crises I think this one global warming looms larger and more threatening than [[1:06:08]] anything in all of human history
now because of our enormous per-capita [[1:06:13]] consumption of resources we can say with confidence the world’s worst population [[1:06:19]] growth problem is right here in the United States but you hear all sorts of
well-meaning people pointing to distant [[1:06:26]] underdeveloped nations and saying they’re the problem with overpopulation a average person in the United States [[1:06:32]] and a lifetime will assume something like maybe 30 times amount of resources that will be [[1:06:38]] consumed by a person in a lifetime in an underdeveloped nation we are the problem [[1:06:43]] we have the responsibility and we have the authority to deal with the problem [[1:06:48]] here as a domestic problem in the United States and some years ago speaking here [[1:06:54]] on the campus of the University of Colorado our United States Senator Tim Wirth said that the best thing we can do [[1:07:00]] to help other countries stop their population growth is for us to set an example and stop our own population [[1:07:07]] growth here in the u.s. we have sent representatives to international conferences to tell the underdeveloped [[1:07:13]] nations you’re the problem you’ve got to stop your population grow and they just laugh and say look you’re the problem [[1:07:20]] with all of your high per capita consumption
Conclusion
now except for the petroleum [[1:07:25]] graphs the things I tell you are not predictions of the future I’m only reporting facts and the results of some [[1:07:31]] very simple arithmetic but I do this with confidence that these facts this arithmetic and more important our level [[1:07:39]] of understanding of them will play a major role in shaping our future
now [[1:07:44]] don’t take what I’ve said blindly on critically because of the rhetoric or for any other reason please you check [[1:07:50]] the facts please check my arithmetic if you find errors please let me know but [[1:07:59]] if you don’t find errors then I hope you’ll take this very very seriously you [[1:08:06]] are important people you can think and if there was ever a time when the human [[1:08:12]] race needs people who will think it’s right
now it’s our responsibility as [[1:08:17]] citizens in a democracy to think and
so to be successful with this experiment of [[1:08:23]] human life on earth we have to understand the laws of nature as we [[1:08:28]] encounter them in the study of science and mathematics
we have to remember the message of this cartoon thinking is very [[1:08:37]] upsetting it tells us things we’d rather not know
we should remember the words of [[1:08:44]] Galileo he said I do not feel obliged believe that the same God who has [[1:08:50]] endowed us with sense reason and intellect has intended us to forgo their [[1:08:55]] use
we should remember the words of Aldous Huxley he observed that facts do [[1:09:01]] not cease to exist because they’re ignored
and we should remember HL [[1:09:08]] Mencken social philosophy he believed that it was the nature of the human species to reject what is true but [[1:09:15]] unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting
and we [[1:09:22]] should remember Eric severide s law
he was a newscaster who made the transition [[1:09:27]] from radio to television back in the 1950s he observed that the chief source [[1:09:33]] of problems of solutions
Nile
now let’s just look at an example the Nile River for [[1:09:41]] thousands of years would flood in the spring and the silt that was carried down by the river would be deposited on [[1:09:47]] agricultural lands on the two sides of the river and this renewed the fertility of the land they had a sustainable [[1:09:54]] agriculture for thousands of years but
now the flood was sign of a nuisance as [[1:09:59]] you had cities develop along there and the city people didn’t like the floods and then the city people needed [[1:10:06]] electricity
so that was the problem what was the solution the high dam at Aswan
so
now let’s look at the problems [[1:10:13]] caused by the solution first of all all the silt is carried down by the river is [[1:10:18]] deposited in the reservoir behind the dam
so this means the dam has a lifetime maybe a hundred to two hundred years it [[1:10:25]] certainly is not very long
so it’ll be filled and then there won’t be the storage capacity that it was designed to [[1:10:31]] have the water that’s let out from the dam today is very clear water
so this means all of the erosion patterns [[1:10:38]] downstream has changed it used to be deposit here pick up there and
so on
now it’s pretty much just picking up because [[1:10:44]] it starts out from the dam as clear water down at the Delta in Alexandria where the Nile enters the Mediterranean [[1:10:51]] Sea they’re washing away agricultural land because it’s no longer being [[1:10:57]] deposited in the rivers just washing it out into the meadow Turanian and it used to be the load of [[1:11:03]] biological nutrients that were brought down in this river all the time supported a major fishery in the eastern [[1:11:09]] Mediterranean that fishery is in serious decline because the nutrients no longer reach there and
now in order to have [[1:11:15]] their agriculture they’ve got to do irrigation they’ve got a buy fertilizer it takes energy to make the fertilizer [[1:11:21]] and it could easily be that some of the energy to make the fertilizer comes from the dam
and now there are lots of more [[1:11:27]] agricultural workers waiting barefoot in the irrigation ditches and they’re subject to a system iosys which is a [[1:11:33]] some kind of a parasite that’s carried by things in the water that can get through the skin and if you’re barefoot [[1:11:39]] in the in the water why you can get this everything went bad because of the solution to the problem nobody looked at [[1:11:46]] what the problems would be caused by the solution this is one of the most important things that we need to [[1:11:51]] remember
Challenge
now here’s a challenge can you think of any problem on any scale from [[1:11:59]] microscopic to global whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way [[1:12:05]] aided assisted or advanced by having larger populations at the local level at [[1:12:11]] the state level the national level are globally
can you think of anything that will get better if we crowd more people [[1:12:19]] into our communities into our state into our nation or on this earth think about [[1:12:24]] it
will anything get better with increased population?
and I like the [[1:12:30]] words of the late Reverend Martin Luther King jr. he said
unlike the plagues of [[1:12:36]] the Dark Ages or contemporary diseases which we do not yet understand the [[1:12:42]] modern plague of overpopulation is soluble by means we have discovered and [[1:12:47]] with resources we possess what is lacking is not sufficient knowledge of the solution
but universal consciousness [[1:12:54]] of the gravity of the problem and the education of the billions who are its [[1:13:01]] victims
and so I hope I’ve made a reasonable case for my opening statement [[1:13:06]] that I believe their greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand this very simple [[1:13:14]] arithmetic
so I thank you very very much and I’d be happy to answer