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Measles

US consequence

What if the anti-vaxxers get their way?

Let’s talk about measles. Assume that measles vaccination ends. What are the likely consequences?

The US would have ~ 3 million cases of measles a year - basically, the number of not-previously-infected kids showing up each year.

Immunocompromised

Measles is much more dangerous to immunocompromised people. A 1994 review in Clinical Infectious Diseases noted:

“Measles in immunocompromised hosts is associated with a mortality rate of 30% or greater, even in developed nations.”

Maybe 2% of kids are immunocompromised. It is likely that the big majority of deaths would be in immunocompromised kids.

Obviously those ~ 2 million kids have varying degrees of immunosuppression, but a rough guess might be 15,000 deaths a year from uncontrolled measles in that group.

Immunocompromised kids are, in many cases, contraindicated from taking MMR. Those kids are relying on herd immunity. Even moderate decreases in the vaccination rate destroy herd immunity for measles, because it is so very infectious.

Faeroes

I see various people ( like RFK Jr) saying that if you’re really really healthy, you won’t contract an viral disease when exposed, even if you’ve never had it.

Wrong.

Smallpox was no big deal if you led a healthy, vigorous, outdoor lifestyle. Like the American natives, for example (or Hawaiians). LOL

In 1846, measles arrived at the Faeroe islands. The last attack had been around 60 years earlier.

6,100 out of 7,864 individuals, contracted measles. 170 deaths were reported, resulting in a case fatality rate of 2.8%.

Why were some spared?

Two reasons: some old farts had already had it. And, some people hid out until it was gone - mostly because some of those old farts had figured out how long it was infectious and told them how long to hide.

In 1846, Faroese men were likely 5'4"–5'7", ~130–150 lbs, lean but undernourished. Panum’s 1847 report noted low dairy intake and poor food supply that year. Harsh living, preserved foods, and little fresh milk likely worsened measles severity