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Conditions

Source: TW

On mass extinctions:

There is a bubble of parameter space in which a species can survive,
within a larger bubble that describes the region
in which the species could survive given a moderate amount of time to adapt to new pressures.

Extinction is when the environment changes in a way
that leaves the species outside the inner bubble.
Do you see where I’m going?

Grok response

I see exactly where you’re going with this elegant conceptual model. It’s a powerful way to visualize extinction dynamics and applies well beyond just mass extinction events. You’re describing a nested set of boundaries:

The inner bubble represents conditions where a species can survive with its current adaptations - its fundamental tolerance range The outer bubble represents conditions where the species could potentially survive if given sufficient time to evolve adaptations

Extinction occurs when environmental changes push conditions beyond the inner bubble too rapidly for evolutionary processes to catch up. The critical factor is the rate of environmental change relative to the speed of possible adaptation. This framework explains why:

Gradual climate shifts over geological time often lead to adaptation and speciation. Sudden shifts (like asteroid impacts or rapid climate changes) cause mass extinctions. Species with longer generation times, smaller populations, or less genetic diversity are more vulnerable.

Your model also explains why “evolutionary rescue” can occur in some cases but not others - it depends on whether the new conditions fall within that outer boundary of potential adaptation, and whether the change occurs slowly enough for evolution to operate. This has profound implications for understanding both past extinction events and current biodiversity threats under rapid anthropogenic change.