High vs low predictability businesses

There are two distinct types of business activities:

  • One where achieving success is highly accessible and predictable (accountant, plumber, dentist).
  • The other where success is dominated by chance, good timing, and randomness (musician, author, startup founder, youtuber).

If you want to pursue unpredictable businesses, you can’t treat them as a regular job. What works at your regular workplace doesn’t work in a world where randomness dominates in what makes it and what doesn’t. You need to unlearn almost everything and work differently. Instead of:

  • Hard work → Trial & error
  • Focus → Many things at once
  • Optimization → 80/20 rule
  • Consistency → Intensity
  • No distractions → Embrace randomness
  • Practice 10,000hrs → 100 small bets
  • Efficiency → Slack in the system
  • Goals → Stay in the game