03 Projected changes

  • The situation: the rapidly increasing proportion of Abrahamists in India (and more broadly, worldwide), leading to Hindu composition falling below the 50% mark at least before 2100 (see GS) if we fail to respond. How should hindus respond?
  • The effect of polygamy
    • “In other words, the more sister-wives a Mormon woman had, the fewer children she was likely to produce.” (G).
  • Some claim: “Religion will be a lot less important in the future (50 years from now)”. This contradicts demographic trends of atheists and careerists having a significantly lower fertility rate. Absent other artificial restraints (like in China), even considering low constant rate of erosion of “belief” – this leads to maintenance if not increase in religiosity levels. As such, feminism, careerism, atheism etc.. have tended to by dysgenic traits in the modern environment (with easy access to contraception). This may be observed in shifts in demographics worldwide (orthodox among Jews, Christians, Muslims, Hindus etc..)

Prospects of stabilization

The Sachar committee report cites projections (See page 45 [or 65] of this pdf) assumes that Muslim fertility will drop to replacement level and thence converge to Hindu fertility levels by either 2030 or 2041; while Elst does not anticipate such stabilization. Erik Kaufman agrees. Hans Rosling asserts that the world population will stabilize at 10 billion; and that fertility is more directly correlated with access to contraceptives and female involvement in the work-force rather than religion. However, observations from gapminder and articles such as this (“There is some resistance among Muslim communities, but most people are Hindus.”) suggest that access to contraceptives and female involvement in the work-force is correlated with religion. Unlike Rosling, Melinda Gates acknowledges that unless such opposition is overcome, he is wrong in his hopes for stabilization - and specifically mentions Afghanistan, Sub-Saharan Africa, Uttar Pradesh, Catholic doctrine.

Demographic reversals elsewhere

  • Ancient Greek and Roman examples dealt with elsewhere.
  • Goa
  • Annexation of sikkim
  • Lebanon

Hindu caste composition

Based on Mandal commission, census data and projections based on TFR patterns by @skyesins.

  • 2005

    • ST 5%
    • SC 22.2%
    • OBC 42.8%
    • General 26%

  • 2020

    • ST 13.5%
    • SC 25%
    • OBC 41.5%
    • General 20%

  • 2050

    • ST 18%
    • SC 35%
    • OBC 35%
    • General 15%

After 2070, General Hindus will fall into single digit share in overall population of India.

Threats to India

  • A second partition involving Assam, Bengal, Kashmir.
    • Possibly also Telangana and Kerala. These are not too precarious, being surrounded by Hindu majority states.
  • A large scale all-India Islamic rebellion.
    • Examples from elsewhere:
      • Dungan Rebellion of China [WI]
      • Christian rebellion of Japan.