Victory of the Congress-led coalition
The first UPA (2004–2009) and the second (2009 onwards)
After the shock administered to the country by the Gujarat pogroms (an event so well planned and organized that the nature of that state itself was entirely modified), the violence refused to die down. The following year saw a lot of agitation in Northern and Western India. There were clashes, skirmishes, and minor «unprepared» riots issued out of silly quarrels, taking immediately communal colors, but petering out if the police were vigilant (as is currently the case in Bihar under the rule of the Janata Dal [U] chief minister Nitish Kumar). It could be serious otherwise, especially when any local personality wants trouble. This was the case, for instance, in Gorakhpur, a sensitive city in Uttar Pradesh, where the sitting BJP MP, Mahant Adityanath, is known for his militancy: on Holi 2003, things turned extremely violent, and Mayawati, the UP chief minister, had to intervene (Engineer 2004).
After the Ahmedabad pogroms, and in spite of later developments, the amicable A. B. Vajpayee had remained popular. The NDA was expecting an easy victory in the coming general elections (for the fourteenth Lok Sabha). That was not to be (Jayal 2004). In May 2004, the winner was a Congress-led coalition, patiently built by none less than the Italian-born widow of Rajiv Gandhi, Sonia. This victory came as a terrible blow to the BJP and to its «satellites.» A «foreigner» at the head of the state? Hindu India felt betrayed.
Whatever the blow and the denigrating campaign which followed, the beginnings of the new coalition, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), were brilliant: Sonia Gandhi stepped down, with much elegance, to make room for a prime minister who would not be controversial, a Sikh moreover, Dr. Manmohan Singh.
For the minorities, this was a strong signal. The new coalition, the UPA, was certainly extremely diverse but here, with the support also of the CPI and CPI (M), one could assume that most of them were committed to the notion and requirements of a secular state. Rightly or wrongly, people felt safer.
How is it then that, given the lessons of the past and the growing ambitions of the Sangh Parivar, Muslims who are able to absorb the heaviest blows and meet the weightiest challenges, cannot display the same good common sense, and master their reactions when it comes to petty or trivial offenses? Each community knows too well the age-old procedures of provocation (Gaborieau 1985), the traditional irritants, the religious symbols which are not to be touched, especially at the time of festivals which, unfortunately, frequently coincide. Why resort so easily to «brick batting?»
Year after year, the list of the riots compiled with such courage by Asghar Ali Engineer and his CSSS (Centre for the Study of Society and Secularism, in Bombay) is revealing of the underlying violence which can surge any time if the administration in charge of law-and-order is not constantly on the alert. And there are, of course, places whose names are often cited in the news. Uttar Pradesh cities, for instance, have remained extremely sensitive: Agra, Aligarh, Azamgarh, Muzaffarnagar, and all of those localities where, for instance, a dangerous MP from Gorakhpur, Mahant Adityanath (see supra), has done his best, in recent years, to set up trouble. He has thus been involved in serious rioting in Bareilly, in Mau in 2005 (Ramzan and Dussehra coincided that year) and in Gorakhpur, in 2007, during Muharram. Outside UP, disquieting news would come regularly from Maharashtra where the ruling Congress-NCP government seems unable (or even reticent?) to control the Shiv Sena and the VHP. Cities in Madhya Pradesh (Dhar, Indore, Ujjain, etc.) are often in the news and, with increased frequency, Rajasthan, where, after a long BJP reign, the Sangh militants do not accept to see the Congress back, with Ashok Gehlot as the present chief minister. And in the South, it has been remarked how sensitive Karnataka has become, with many new Hindu groups proving really dangerous.
Thus, it would be a mistake to assume that, because of the absence of major riots over the last decade, and because of the much-reduced number of casualties (the statistics of the Home Minister are quite optimistic), the underlying violence has really disappeared. There is much more than meets the eye, although it is also true that, on both sides, the concerned communities are able to display a surprising grasp of realities. This strange mixture of deep religious commitment, resentment, and self-control of the Millat (the Muslim community) appeared in full light in March 2006 when it came to demonstrating against the notorious Danish cartoons mocking the Prophet. There were lakhs (1 lakh = 100,000) of Muslims in the streets of Delhi, gathered in the first place to condole the death of Maulana Madani, rector of the famous Deoband Seminary, and also to demonstrate against the Civil Nuclear Deal (G. W. Bush was in town to sign the agreement). However, the spectacular mass-gathering of the Millat turned out to be a major demonstration against the «obscenities» and «blasphemies» of the West. The whole protest was nevertheless extremely disciplined and there were no incidents, in sharp contrast with the furious yells of an irresponsible UP minister, Haji Mohammed Yakoob, who, from a pulpit in Meerut, shouted out enormous offers of money (Rs. 51 crores, that is $11.5 million) for the head of the cartoonist. It set up emotions, of course, and a riot erupted in Lucknow-of all cities, it was the least communal-prone in Uttar Pradesh. Other examples abound: cricket matches as in 2003 and the writings of Taslima Nasreen as in 2010 are still able to create hot tensions. A serious incident in South Delhi at Okhla (a controversial encounter with police at Batla House) led the students of Jamia Millia to demonstrate rather quietly, but it had nevertheless serious consequences in Azamgarh (Uttar Pradesh) in September–October 2008 (as was reported in the 1–15 October and 16–31 October 2008 issues of the Milli Gazette).