1994–2004: Congress is forced to bow to composite Fronts until a BJP-led coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), gains undisputed power.
As we have seen earlier, people, in Northern India, were saturated with the violence they had experienced. The BJP itself was uncertain about its next steps. The demolished Babri Masjid was no longer a rallying point. Muslims themselves were in a state of shock and deep anger, but they remained realistic enough to understand that confrontation did not pay. Their leaders were now reduced to silence and introspection.
The following years were rather quiet. Sporadic incidents occurred, of course, but, except in Kanpur where the army had to be called in, these events were more or less trivial, or stopped in time by the police (Engineer 1994). Regional governments carried on. In UP, there was a kind of political «musical-chairs» game: «Maulana Mulayam» and his Samajwadi Party were back; after him a charismatic lady, Mayawati, an «untouchable» who was bringing her Dalit organization, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), to power for the first time ever (Jaffrelot 2003b: 387–42; A. Bose 2009); then followed the inescapable BJP which was still a force to reckon with in the region. In Western India, the same BJP was progressing rapidly: it enjoyed an undisputed victory in the Gujarat assembly elections (1995), and engaged in power-sharing with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra (1995), while, in the South, on carefully prepared ground (serious incidents in 1994 in Hubli and Bangalore), it became obvious that the state of Karnataka was the Sangh Parivar’s next step (see Chapter 4 below).
As far as the Congress was concerned, it was definitely in trouble. At the Centre, the party’s poor performance during the 1996 Lok Sabha ballot (earning 141 seats) was to compel it to bow to a composite Third Front where Left forces could have run the show, had the CPI(M) politburo allowed Jyoti Basu to become prime minister. It was Deve Gowda instead, a Janata Dal leader from Karnataka, to be followed one year later by his brilliant Foreign Minister, I. K. Gujral. It lasted only a few months. The Congress Party was playing a dangerous game of lending and withdrawing its support, while the BJP was waiting in the wings. In 1999, the electorate granted the Hindu party the support it needed to form a well-balanced government. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was a rather prestigious personality and the soft face of the Sangh Parivar. He was relatively popular with Muslims: as Foreign Minister in 1977, after the Emergency, he had facilitated relationships and family travels with Pakistan. In 1999, he had carefully organized his new venue to the gaddi [throne] (after two earlier attempts-one in 1996 and a more successful one in 1998 with the victory of Kargil over Pakistan in the Himalayas) and he had managed to set up a strong coalition of 15 different parties with a serious common program. In fact, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would have left a «shining» image of itself and of the country (almost no serious rioting occurred during those years), if it had not remained a somewhat silent spectator to certain dramatic episodes which profoundly shook the entire country.
The first episode had to do with Christians. We cannot but mention this because Muslims, who were relieved by a kind of relaxed atmosphere, realized that the VHP had not changed its program, and that, in attacking Christian tribals and missionaries (in Orissa and in the Dangs–Gujarat), Hindu activists were simply diversifying their targets.
The second shock was linked to the massacres which took place in Ahmedabad, in Godhra, and in their neighborhood (Gujarat) in February 2002. This was mass violence at its worst-a merciless anti-Muslim pogrom lasting several weeks. In spite of the information that came to light through various high-court and Supreme-Court judgments, the facts remain unclear regarding a train of Hindu pilgrims which had been set afire in the Godhra railway station (Jaffrelot 2003a, 2011). Who started what? It was said to have been a Muslim provocation. It could have just been an accidental unfortunate move. Whatever the truth might be, the answer was atrocious, and the responsibility of the BJP chief minister Narendra Modi, and of his administration, has been demonstrated again and again. While it is true that A. B. Vajpayee, the BJP prime minister, did protest, he was not heard. What possible recourse could he have had against a popular leader from his own party who was now so well entrenched in the state? Gujarat is one of the most dynamic places in India. It attracts investments and various types of industry. In 2012, the thrice-elected Narendra Modi still reigns supreme.